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. these are your headlines from around the world -- >> opec ministers expect to agree on keeping their output target. talks about the level of u.s. production, rivalries between iran and saudi arabia, and a new secretary general could get heated. >>> italy likely to see a strong uptai uptake thanks to supply reductions before year end. >>> and let's twist again. the fed set to announce a fresh around of bond purchases to match the outgoing twist program at the end of the year. >>> the international community blasts north korea after it successfully launches a long-range rocket, prompting an emergency u.n. security council meeting. >>> all right. a very good morning to you. we are going to be on to opec later. we've got the latest i.a. data out this morning. they're saying global oil demand projected around 90.5 million barrels a day. more than forecast. they say non-opec production bouncing back. an something bit. they're saying opec crude supply inched up in november led by higher output from saudi arabia. >> i think we'll have to call this today the case of the two oil reports. we have the
per barrel. that's just about where opec members want them. opec will be meeting tomorrow to see who will publicly lead the group. joining us for , zendana hari. good morning. what are your expectations for this meeting? >> we aren't expecting any major surprises so far based on what the ministers coming into the meeting have been saying publicly and even privately. officially, opec will stick to its 30 million a day barrel target. that covers all the members of the group. that would be actually production has been consistently higher ever since this target wab set. almost 1.1 million barrels above the target is what opec has cut into producing. >> heading into a meeting like this, incident isn't just about the supply, it's about demand. we've seen some softening in global production. how much will these countries have to produce next year? is it going to be a demand story ultimately as we look at global growth or is it going to be a supply story, about the middle east and where the flow is actually coming from? >> i think it will be a supply story. we saw entire libyan production ou
talked to a lot of people, they say yes. melissa: charlie, thank you. a battle for control as opec meets. who will be the new leader of the oil cartel? saudi arabia or arch rival iran fighting for the top spot. [ male announcer ] where do you turn for legal matters? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to handle your legal needs. maybe you have questions about incorporating a business you'd like to start. or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. and you'd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along, answer any questions and offer advice. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at legalzoom.com today. nd now you're protecd. lori: markets holding up. nice rally. as we do every 15 minutes let's head back to the floor of the new york stock exchange to check in with nicole. jpmorgan the new favorite bank for customers. >> this is very interesting
is controlled by the opec cartel, meets twice a year to establish quotas in order to keep prices at an acceptable level for the opec exporters. the national oil companies of opec and other countries around the world hold the vast majority of oil reserves. they produced only about 40% of the world petroleum every day. this's a chart that shows graphically. if there is ever an example of a market that is not free, it is that. nobody acts in that matter in a purely free-market. if opec were doing what it does abroad in this country, it would be a crime and in violation of our antitrust laws. the prescription that the council, but several years ago which was very impact will in the energy security independence act of 2007, was it, was based on our port of 2007, which said that the united states should maximize its oil and gas production, that it should significantly reduce consumption and improve conservation, which led to the direct support for the reinstitution of fuel efficiency standards, which has not been done for 20 years. and to develop to the extent it was liable a biofuel s
countries that do not wish us well. basically, opec countries. these countries, in my opinion, have been very cooperative. libya, kuwait, uae. they have all helped us contained iran. they have some connection with an 9/11. -- it is true they have some connection with 9/11, but over all our relationship with these countries have been very good. >> i think it has been said what you said in your first point. the fact that we may reduce the amount of oil we import, it does not decouple was from the world oil market. canada and norway are both exporters, but their citizens pay of the market price for a gallon of gasoline. we said exactly what you said on your first point. on your second point, the opec nations in being friends of the united states, i think the answer to that is that both sides have had a relationship that has been economically necessary, but i do not think the opec cartel conducts its affairs in a way to benefit the united states of america. they conduct their affairs so that they do not kill the goose that laid the golden egg. if you turn into the record on pages 8 and 9, yo
. that is nicholas maduro. venezuela's oil minister announced at the last opec meeting the country has the largest oil reserves in the world. would the death of chavez have a major impact on the global oil market? with me, john kingston, platt's global director. welcome back to the show. this is huge. we've been following this for a long time but i mean it's very serious. emergency surgery. it is his third surgery. he never talked about what kind of cancer he has but at this point it has got to be very serious? >> i think we can assume the chavez area is almost over. as colleague of mine said i heard you refer earlier why that is setting up uncertainty in the market. you're always a little better with the crazy that you do know than the one you don't. melissa: i guess. >> what the future holds could be civil strife, not a civil war but i have felt for a long time that the biggest risk in oil markets would be a precipitous collapse of the venezuelan industry. you hate to think that the death of mr. chavez would set that off but ped vest is a, the state oil company has been essentially gutted by cha
is controlled by the opec cartel, the organization of petroleum exporting countries, which meets twice a year to establish quotas in order to keep prices at an acceptable level for the opec exporters. the national oil companies of opec and other countries around the world hold the vast majority of oil reserves, over 80%. they produce only 40% of the world's petroleum every day. there's a chart in the report that you have that shows us graphically. if there's ever an example of a market that is not free, it is that. nobody operates and acts in that manner in a purely free market. in fact, if opec were doing what it does abroad in this country, it would be a crime and a violation of our antitrust laws. so the prescription that the energy security leadership council came up with several years ago, which was very impactful in the energy security -- independence and security act of 2007, was it? 2008? was based on our report in 2007, which said that the united states should maximize its oil and gas production, that it should significantly reduce consumption and improve conservation, which led to t
prices. the marginal barrel of production is controlled by the opec cartel, meets twice a year to establish quotas in order to keep prices at an acceptable level for the opec exporters. the national oil companies of opec and other countries around the world hold the vast majority of oil reserves. they produced only about 40% of the world petroleum every day. there's a chart that shows this graphically. if there is ever an example of a market that is not free, it is that. nobody acts in that matter in a purely free-market. if opec were doing what it does abroad in this country, it would be a crime and in violation of our antitrust laws. the prescription that the council, but several years ago which was very impact will in the energy security independence act of 2007, was it, was based on our port of 2007, which said that the united states should maximize its oil and gas production, that it should significantly reduce consumption and improve conservation, which led to the direct support for the reinstitution of fuel efficiency standards, which has not been done for 20 years. and
with all the tension going on at the opec meeting in vienna now. you know, wti higher by 41 cents. 86.20 per barrel. london, 108.53. a gain of.5%. the treasuries and ten-year yield now is -- very close to 1.7%. decline of 1/8 point. the dollar is mixed across the board. 82.84 for every dollar. the pound would cost you $1.61. the price of gold this hour is higher by $5.20. a gain of .3%, 1,714 per ounce. time for the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by in london. >> michelle, hello. >> you might be here 12-12-2110. >> i think the date is 1221? today is 12-12. 12-21 it when the world ends. i think we've only got nine days left of the global market report. >> i'm worried about the fiscal cliff -- once we get the world -- which is worse? the world ending or the fiscal cliff? >> about the same i think. >> one could bring about the other. >> i think it's no accident they're both approaching. that's how i'm going to read the tea leaves. as you see, a mixed picture this morning. people mostly waiting on the fed decision later today. the major boards green, the ftse adding .25%.
.s.. where it's growing is the rest of the world. >> right. >> we don't have any real opec or non-opec growth in terms of plux. who gets the call? the people who do offshore and deepwater drilling and down hole work. that's why you want to be there. >> global diversions here to some extent. all right, thank you very much, gentlemen, john stevenson and larry, have a great weekend. >> thank you, you too. >> thanks. >> leaders meeting with the president right now this very moment at the white house and the country and entire world watching because if we go off the cliff, markets around the globe could be affected. live to the white house with the very latest. david: taxes on dividends could be rising. chairman of southern company who owns a bunch of utility companies, why that could spell trouble for more than just investors. >> liz joins us telling us which big companies will be first to take a costly fall if we, in fact, do go off that cliff. ♪ [ indiinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indiinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close
and this is not just me forecasting this, opec is worried about it, he stated it, so has the iea if china continues to slow down and they likely will because europe their biggest customer goes into a full-blown recession if not worse, that is going to spell trouble for the global economy, people won't be needing energy and just like we saw in 2008 with the financial crisis, oil gets hit, the prices get hit in that environment, like you said, though, it i a coter cyclical so it is stimulative to the economy, more money in consumers products hopefully to buy and sustain the economy. >> complicated equation there, john, thanks a lot for coming and explaining all of this, have a great weekend. >> >> still hot on this friday night, u.s. manufacturing staying afloat, the luxury boat business made right here in the usa. >> it is called pay as you earn, it is a new obama administration program to pay off student loans, the starting date to sign up is next friday. but it looks like the plan favors graduate students who get bigger paychecks than low earning workers. >> in the state of >> reporter: in his sta
energy resources. we turn natural gas into transportation fuel, what a deal that would be. tell the opec nation that we don't want your oil anymore. we are producing methanol or gasoline from natural gas. we are going to keep the money in this country, invested over and over again, create jobs and counties that haven't seen job creation in decades to end this would just multiply. on top of that, it's not just drillers who succeed landowners. it is the people who make the equipment. we have such a boom opportunity here that it would be shameful for hollywood set the wrong impression in people's minds at the facts do not bear up under the hollywood interpretation. gerri: let's be clear. pennsylvania, ohio, you look across the region are it a real renaissance for the first time for areas where people were just desperate for some kind of economic jolt. here they have it. they have it from their own soil, right from their backyard. epa is going to step in here. we will see what happens. thank you for coming on tonight. happy new year to you. >> thank you and happy new year to you as well. ger
that opec does, every time we see unrest in the middle east, we see a spike in oil, does that mean more we're rousing here in the u.s. we won't be impacting by that as much? >> yeah. i mean the more domestic supply we have, the less we depend on opec ps of the world, no question. the problem we have as the world though, 92 million barrels a day roughly what the production is. that is about a million barrels a day of excess capacity. so any little flare-up in the middle east will impact world oil prices. ashley: so do you think we'll be energy independent anytime soon? we're almost there. >> yeah. i think by "20/20" -- 2020 we have legitimate chance between all the natural gas we're bringing on and oil we're bringing on, on energy equivalent basis we'll be independent. we'll be importing oil and exporting gas as lng, very good, interesting stuff. john shiller, chairman of energy defend one. john, thank you so much. we appreciate it. >> thank you for having us. tracy: you make a great point, saudi arabia will not be very happy about our quest for independence. ashley: that is real threat to
. oil we nerve drever dreamed we access. we need to break the back of on pe opec. we need to provide it for energy security. many nations we buy oil from are anna l anathetical to the american way of democracy. we are fighting our enemies and it could end in the foreseeable future. but there is a second component that should have you steamed it had me steamed almost as much as my outrage at the fiscal cliff discussion in washington. i had to use the term fiscal cliff. hadn't used it yet in this piece. i'm talking about the skaunterred opportunity in natural gas. he was quite bullish in the price of oil. chinese keep it up. we have an umbrella that makes it worth our while to get hard to get oil. as plentiful as oil is, there is a gigantic glut for natural gas, and the opposite of oil, all papas talked. more nat gas than we know what to do with. we have no place to put it and not enough places to use it. and natural gas isn't fungible. it costs fortunes to transport overseas and barely economical when transported overseas. the best use is in this country. and we need to harness natura
lucrative yet little notice commodities market that canadians dominated by opec domination of the world oil markets. monopolizing the maple syrup market producing as much as 70 percent of the high-value commodity. since 1999, the province use the marketing system that set strict quotas for producers and requires them to sell to a federation in the spring of 2011 a critical change said that peace plan in motion. a good harvest meant maple syrup production shares spiked. so much protection the federation was forced to add a warehouse, its third, to accommodate overflow. into the seven criminals. hoping to score the perfect heist, their goal, to steal as much as their sticky hands can handle from the strategic maple reserved. that is what it's really called. first, the ridge to the portion of the new warehouse which allowed them to drive large trucks into the building. then they began emptying the barrels of maple syrup, refilling them with water. they refilled that serve on the open market setting themselves up as legitimate maple syrup dealers and because kershaw restores don't use a bar cod
the u.s. energy department says opec will rake in a record $1.05 trillion this year. in net oil export revenue. >>> microsoft is expanding i'm over it but. [buzzer] david: come on. >> the tech giant revealing plans to add six more specialty stores on top of the 51 stores open in the u.s., canada this year. i nailed the script though. i didn't make any miss takes. that is today's speed read. david: didn't make any mistakes. should give you extra time. first time she has done it. hundreds of flights were grounded today do to bad weather but some airline stocks are getting ready to take off, believe it or not in 2013. shibani: let's find out the winnerses and losers. we have hunterer kay. thanks for joining us, hunter. getting bumpy skies right now with all the weather delays. first off does this impact the stocks or the economic impact at all, should we be thinking about it? >> no. investors overlook whether instances frequently. even when we had hurricane sandy rolling through the airline stocks outperformed the s&p week of and week after. at this point investors are overlooking that ki
intellectual, too. >> opec and the fed, hey, u.s. production up. let's go to sharon epperson at the nymex. >> oil has really been on the move since the open a few minutes ago. not so much opec, which still packed with the current quota around 30 million barrels per day, it is producing more than that. but we are hearing, of course, from opec itself that saudi arabia has reduced its production in november to the lowest level in a year. so that seems to be a way that they will adhere closer to the current quota. we're also looking at the latest report from the international energy agency which may have more of an impact where oil prices are going in this session. they're looking for slightly demand in 2013. and they're pointing to china for the reason. we're anticipating we'll get the report from the energy department at 10:30 a.m. on oil supplies. the expectation is for a slight decline in food supplies. but we did see a major build in the industry report, if that is confirmed we could see these gains short-lived. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, sharon epperson. we've got a
.s. to be north american oil independent. and fundamentally what that means is we won't be relying on opec oil imports by 2020. we're going to rely on canadian imports plus burgeoning u.s. production. that is a major major change in the united states energy picture. >> now mark, one of the things that i've learned from you is that the numbers that we often see are radically understated. the government will put out numbers. it seems like every time they put out numbers they're well behind. what is the disconnect between the numbers that we see officially and what's really going on in the oil patch? and why don't people realize how quickly this change is occurring? >> yes. the dynamic of the change is one that's easy to underestimate. in fact, eog has really underestimated the dynamic of the change. we've raised our production growth forecast for oil three times this year. and that's not because we've been coy with wall street. it's really because we've underappreciated the power of some of these plays. you mentioned earlier for example this eagle ford play, we think that just eog's net of oil d
.13 trillion of our debt. now, this is interesting. out of this debt number three on the list is opec. opec is an entity. that's the countries of ecuador and venezuela and india and bahrain and iran and iraq and kuwait and amman and qatar and saudi arabia and the u.a.e., algeria, ga been a, -- gabon, nigeria. they're now number three on the list and they own $267 billion of our debt. brazil comes in at number four, $250.5 billion. and then number five on the list, new to the list, the top five list, the caribbean banking centers. now own $240.4 billion of u.s. debt. by the way, caribbean banking centers are the bahamas, bermuda, cayman islands, netherlands and panama. this is who owns us. this is who owns our debt. and this is why on this side of the aisle, what we continue to say is the spending has to be dealt with. we have seen -- we've heard from everybody. we are hearing from economists all around the globe. and they repeatedly say what we are saying, what we've been saying for years as week of come to this floor. is that we have a spending problem. the spending has to be dealt with. w
on the throne. her diamond jubilee marked the beginning of britain taking center stage. and at the london opec the queen had a starring role. >> good evening. >> good evening, your majesty. >> reporter: the queen shows little sign of slowing down,y about her oldest grandson now has to choose between his job as a helicopter pilot and becoming a full-time royal. >> the queen at 86, of course, is key for prince william to get more involved in the workings of the royal family. >> reporter: we know prince william will definitely have a new role in 2013. he'll become a dad. whatever the coming year brings for the royals, there will be at least one reason to celebrate. for "today," nbc news, london. >> it has been an amazing year for them. although the james bond image, the first that comes in my mind now. >> oh, from the -- >> whenever i see -- >> the queen. i loved it. it was cute. getting a little bit more life out of him there. fun. >>> up next, from "call me maybe" to "gangnam style" the lo year in social media. first these messages. ♪ ♪ spread a little love my way ♪ spread a little someth
, the opec secretary said he doesn't see any threat from u.s. shale product, this after the uae minister has suggested a response from the oil ministers in vienna. gary ross, welcome. >> nice to be here. >> the shale revolution in the u.s., is it a game changer as much as we're hearing from jamie dimon, arcelormittal? do you think this is going to make the u.s. energy independent, almost? >> well, we think it is. it's huge. we've statemented about 11110 billion pounds of recovery oil from shale crude. u.s. product will be going up overall, about a million barrels a day in 2013. about 65% of it will be shale crude. and it will continue to grow. >> people should understand we're not just talking about gas. we're talking about methods that's right.extract more oil. gas is clearly surplus. we're going to have l&g exports in the united states. we have a long-term growth phenomenon for natural gas. what people don't realize is how huge the oil is. when we talk about $110 billion of recovered oil, that's on 7.5% recovery rate. the resource itself is huge. it's not just the united states. it's all o
are stockpiled. what oil is to opec, syrup is to the federation of quebec. went down like this. thieves who were basically inside guys entered part of a warehouse with 16,000 drums were stored, then loaded up trucks with their bounty and started selling to buyers in canada and across the border in new hampshire and vermont. we also know how seriously this crime is being taken. roughly 300 people have been questioned and 40 search warrants enacted so the five suspects still on the run know that justice will likely be served and it will likely be sweet. want to find out what my guests now know they didn't know when they began the week. glenn? >> the country continues to mourn the deaths of 20 children in newtown, connecticut but at the same time, the u.s. government continues a drone program in multiple muslim countries that continues to kill hundreds of children and innocent people around the world. we know how much a community is devastated, a country is devastated by the death of innocent children using violence. time we started thinking about how communities are affected by our violence as wel
is the supply side. at the moment, really we've got to see what opec wants to do. last year, the impact of the embargo wasn't -- was like a six week impact and it was forgotten about very quickly. and if you think about it, last year was a very, very steady year for oil prices. wti, as you said, is going to post the lowest rise in several years. in fact, i looked back in my forecast that i had for wti at the beginning of 2012. and it was $111 $a barrel. i moved it down to $110 in the middle of the year thinking it might get a little weaker and poked around and did absolutely nothing. >> i wonder whether the question is going to come back again into the oil markets given that we're looking at the israeli elections coming up in january. but back to the u.s. story, i find it hugely interesting, this notion of u.s. becoming energy independent on its own. do you really think it will happen? because i still talk to a couple of people in the oim and gas industry that say, you know what? it's a far cry from the reality out there. we're still going to see the middle east being the dominating oi
is happening with today but of course what oil traders are looking for in the week ahead. we have opec meeting on wednesday, which could certainly add to the price volatility and price reaction there as well as whatever happens with the fed. back to you. >> thank you very much, sharon epperson. the big jobs report shows 146,000 jobs were created last month so we asked did you nail the number? all this week we asked you to tweet us your predictions for the november nonfarm payrolls figure. right now the "squawk on the street" team is going through the entries. the locucky winner will receiven oof autographed picture frame. good luck. >> i did not guess well. i thought sandy would have more of an effect. >> where would numbers be without sandy? would we have done 200? >> more economic data on wall street's radar this morning and minutes away from break news on consumer sentiment at 9:55. don't go away. ♪ >> announcer: coming up, cramer is kicking it into high gear. his six stocks in 60 seconds will energize all of us. get your jim jolt when "squawk on the street" returns. try running four.ning
. >>> an oh beck minister, important events. opec ministers are in vienna. >> why vienna, by the way? >> i don't know why they originally set it there, but it seems like as good a place as any. have you been? >> i have not been. >> i don't think i've ever been to vienna. i always wondered about that. >> i mean, it's better than meeting in, i don't know, skokie, right? they're expected to retain its 28 million barrel a day output target. but the real drama is likely to be about leadership, the world's leading oil exporters are expected to argue about who should be opec's next secretary general and we have candidates from iran, iraq and saudi ara a arabia. they're all competing to replace the current leader, as you can see there. abdallah salem el badri, he's 72 years old and he's been there for years. i don't know where i've been for five years, but did you know -- >> i apologize in advance. i didn't. >> you could have said you did and we've been best friends, in fact. >> he's completely changed the entire operation. anyway, did a great job. >> in global market news this morning, stocks in asi
with the opec meeting. in addition to the fed that comes out tomorrow. the expectation is, that opec will leave their current quota unchanged, around 30 million barrels per day. the actual production, around 31 million barrels a day. there may not be any change to that. the key will be what happens in terms of the election of a new secretary-general and saudi arabia in the running for that as well. back to you. >> thanks very much, sharon epperson. i did want to look at shares of largest for-profit hospital in the country. a secondary offering this morning. hga finds itself in the of so many movements of the capital structure, reflective of the 250i78s. don't forget, they borrow at incredibly low rates not long ago, $1 billion, to pay a special dividend. you want to pay a special dividend prior to any tax increase on dividends as well. capital gains figuring into that debate, let's call it at this point that we've been detailing down in d.c. with our "mission critical" coverage. this morning, two of the owners of hca, it was a huge leverage back in '05, and '06, almost four times their money at
with the opec meeting next week as well. back to you. >> thank you very much sharon epperson. >> we did want to note for the viewers, a fairly large hedge fund that was in the news for not good reasons. diamondback capital management, a fund run by richard shimmal and larry kipanzi. richard schimel is the e ex-brother in law. lock capital management. two of those had already closed. level global has closed, in fact one of us founders, andrew chasen is on trial right now. diamondback went down to about $2 billion, but as of this morning, that is no long ter case. the hedge fund saying that given redemption requests came in about 26% of total asset ors $520 million. it would be left with $1.45 billion apparently that's just not enough to run the successful hedge fund. they did have 140 or so people working for them. not sure how much they have trended that. as of now, their seven-year track record at this point. but they have spending redemptions as you might expect. rushing all of the assets to fund holders. often times in these cases, you'll see people run out and look at 13, and say oh, wha
two years, around where it is today. that as opec announced today it will not raise the ceiling that it puts on oil exports of 30 million barrs a day and gas prices are still determined by global oil markets. i maintain that mark will see another economic renaissance and in part due to the domestic energy boom. just don't expect prices at the pump to fall anytime soon. if you're sick of slow internet connections at home, listen up. netflix, the on demand home movie provider depends on high speed connections for its customers to watch their movies. now netflix is starting a new series of monthly ratings of internet providers and the service -- the services with the fastest connection will edge google fiber rated number one by netflix. the speeds it says are 16% faster than number two verizon fios. comcast was number three on the list. here is the problem with google fiber. right now it is only available in kansas city, kansas. too bad, virtually nobody lives there. folks across the city in kansas city, missouri are out of luck for now. from the cnn money newsroom in new york, i'm
supporter of facing compliance. we want to smooth the transition from an opec, unregulated market to a transparent regulated market place. as chairman bachus said if i can quote you, you want to make it operational, sink together and function. so in the midst of that implementation and its of pasta, it's a natural order of things that many market participants have sought further guidance. sometimes the questions, early. but as all of us know, as we're all in school at one point, sometimes we do our papers late come into the night, the day before it is too. and that's just human nature. we will address questions that come up early, and will do our best to address them even if they come up late. prior to a milestone on october 12 commend this milestone was just because the sec and s. -- the cftc finished the foundatiofoundatio nal definition rules, the definition of swapping swap did and so forth went into effect on october 12. we got a lot of those questions, some early, some late. along with my fellow commissioners and staff can we sort through about 20 issues, and i think we sort
. the opec nations, what they're doing to us is incredible. and i look at what's going on and all we do is just kick the ball down the road, keep going along. i'd rather go over the cliff and make the big deal. don't forget, we have a very important moment coming up in about a month and that's the debt ceiling. and for those people that don't get it, that think the republicans have no cards, and unfortunately, you know, i'm a republican and i can tell you we have lots of cards. the republican negotiators have lots of cards because we have the debt ceiling coming up. >> juliet: i actually sort of wanted to segueway into that. you mentioned leadership on both sides of the aisle questioning the strength of the leadership. lindsey graham was on fox news yesterday and he said a couple things that were interesting. and one thing, he used the term, the president won. you elaborate more, and you can't take it out of context. what's the feelings about how the republicans have, and since you are a republican, how they have a.c.t.ed and negotiated throughout the course of this entire drama? >> i s
pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. the next big data point is probably the iaea report in february. and if that implicates more progress toward an iranian bomb, there's significant risk to look to the upside. in the meantime, you have a lot of other issues beyond the fiscal cliff. debt ceiling issues, if not resolved in the negotiation looming. and relatively long stocks here in the u.s. perhaps the most interesting part, becky, is to look at the convergence between light and heavy grades here in north america. we have a lot of light oil. and we're actually potentially short of heavy oil. so seeing convergence within that downward trend means there could be a bid for heavier. >> you would guess that would certainly hurt demand. >> sure. offsetting weakness in the dollar would lift the crude price based on historical trends, of course. yeah, it would be a significant blow, and when we're looking at 370 plus barrels of commercial inventories
. it required outstanding diplomacy and -- to balance the risks and demands of peace in the sort of opec security environment of the cold war period, which perhaps, perhaps most people to remember but perhaps some do not. so, before turning the program over to marvin though, i would just like to mention, we have a new book that's very pertinent to the subject, the reagan-gorbachev arms control breakthrough, edited by david t. jones, and dedicated to ambassador, the late ambassador maynard whitman, who was the principal inf treaty negotiator and leader of or inf delegation. and copies of this book are available at the baca the room for those of you who would like to purchase one afterwards. so without further a due it's my pleasure, to wish all happy holidays and to turn the program over to marvin. marvin? >> thank you very much, this. it's always a pleasure for me to be asked to come here to moderate a panel. my life has been absolved with the foreign service for an awful long time. though i only work in the foreign service for a year and a half. 1956-seven and moscow. but since that tim
's where crude oil breaks out to the upside. we start to get an upward trend. opec's 2013 target is around $100. i think we'll move up into the mid-90s and probably press through that $100. one of the burdens we have is we do have an abundance of supply in the u.s. the u.s. won't export any crude oil, but i think the possibility of us starting to consume more, would drive and help support those higher prices. >> when you put on those longs, i'm wondering, because this week is a holiday shortened week. congress is coming back on the 27th. is this a trade for 2013? >> yeah, it is more of a trade for 2013. i wiould start to look at fartherer out contracts, to like december 2013, and play the entire year's action, just by being long that one contract. but i would strongly wait until after the beginning of the year, because of the weaker volume, the lack of participants. and i think that the price is really going to shop around. >> nat gas prices taking a step back. what do you see in the immediate future and what is the main catalyst here? the weather seems to be sort of calm. >> yeah. that's
to roosters in a small pen say size each other up and one sees the pebble that needs pact and opec it that is displacement because he would rather not fight. that theory is displacement behavior we would give you an opinion that is 100 pages long and will take forever we're displacing the energy for cyber war to legal abstract debates generals are on the sidelines tell me what i can do? this is the wrong way to treat lawyers. their effective use say we thought would take to win the cyber war. the only way to win is due this is a viggo? then you'll get useful legal advice they will find a way to say yes because most not want to cause us to lose but if you wait you'll never know where you can do this is where we are today. >> what is the baker p.o. of the rooster matches? [laughter] >> thank you for putting this together and this book so many issues that we have a very complex we have to access to us by the fact we have a better shot to access the broader audience and they do have the stars there and want to congratulate the chief cat to herder to get people to write these articles o
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